Speech Critique Assignment
Speech Critique Assignment
US presidential candidate from the Republican Party Donald Trump enjoyed his first real victory winning the primaries in New Hampshire on 9 February. Eccentric billionaire and leading reality show was supported by 35% of voters while the Governor of Ohio John Kasich, Trump’s closest competitor on the ballot in New Hampshire, did not get even 16%. The question is whether Donald Trump will be able to convert his personal popularity into votes is no longer relevant because it should be understood what would happen if Trump becomes the 45th US President.
Polls before the primary season defined Donald Trump as the most popular politician in the Republican Party. Voting results in Indiana showed that Trump, despite the scandalous campaign, has a real chance to win the Republican nomination and join the fight for the US presidency. Trump based his campaign on several high-profile statements. He promised to build a wall along the southern US border not to let the “tyrants” from Mexico get into the country. He proposed to introduce compulsory registration for Muslims living in the US and simply ban the entry into the country for the rest of Muslims. He stated that Black Americans killed more whites than whites murdered blacks. In several high-profile allegations, he accused the government of Mexico that it sends to the US “criminals and rapists”. The perturbation of the public and the threat of losing votes of Latino voters did not force him to refuse from his words. Trump said that in the event of coming to power, he will expel from the country illegal immigrants, who make over 11 million people. In addition, he is going to strengthen the protection of borders and increase fee visa to Mexicans entering the United States. Trump also proposes to limit the number of issued residence permits (green card) for foreign workers in order to encourage employers to hire Americans.
At Trump’s meeting with voters, thousand people came to warmly greet all his statements. Trump even admitted that some of his statements were made specifically to please the crowd. This is how it works: he stands in front of a huge crowd of people not knowing what to say and shouts “Save the country, build a wall”. As a result, opponents as well as the voters of the Republican Party think of Trump as a dangerous clown. On the other hand, supporters treat him as a candidate who will shake and chase from Washington vain talkers unable to defend the interests of “ordinary Americans”.
However, if Trump suddenly becomes Commander-in-Chief, no one knows what it portends for the US armed forces. In one of debates, he denounces the policy of George W. Bush for his invasion of Iraq. Nevertheless, after a few days, Trump offers to send a limited contingent of the US troops to fight ISIS. His only more or less distinct rhetoric concerns the economic threat from China. However, Trump has a particular strategy on how to deal with the expansion of China.
For opponents of Donald Trump, the thought of his possible presidency is a nightmare. However, as the popularity of jokes about his emigration to Canada seem less witty, many are trying to understand what threatens the United States if Trump will become the 45th president of the country. The phenomenon of Trump lies in the fact that the candidate is positioning himself as the new Dundee, which is so fond of the public. Women like Trump for his “successful” image of playboy, his charisma, and business achievements.
Forecasts, of course, are based on the very statements that Trump did during the election campaign. For example, a financial magazine The Street writes that Trump did not study and calculate the cost of some of the reforms that he intends to carry out or misused them in his speeches. It turns out that despite the reputation of a successful businessperson, Trump does not have an idea about the value of his ideas. Thus, according to the estimates of The Street, immigration reform (that is the construction of the wall and other offers) will cost the federal budget from 400 to 600 billion dollars over 20 years without taking into account losses from the reduction of the labor force (11 million people) and the subsequent reduction in GDP ($1.6 trillion). Trump proposed tax reform (it involves almost universal tax cuts) that will lead to the increase in GDP and wages as well as the creation of 5 million jobs. However, even with all of these advances, this will result in the reduction of tax revenues by $10 billion over ten years (Trump, n.d.).
The main question is whether Donald Trump will be able, once in the White House, to realize at least one of its high-profile promises. The US president has a significant power, and, in theory, this could mean that Trump will be able, for example, to ban Muslims from entering the US or put taxpayers’ money on the construction of the wall.
However, there are optimistic consequences: Trump will not cause irreparable damage to the US presidency. For starters, if Donald Trump is seriously going to win the election, as Americans approach the date of the vote, he will have to slow down his rhetorical fervor. Provided that Democrats get the votes he cannot win and among Republicans the billionaire has many opponents too, the only hope for him to win is a struggle for the votes of “non-aligned” voters. As he noted in an interview with Vice American historian Brian Balsa, mostly non-aligned are moderate supporters of both parties tending to the political center.
Trump’s electorate is rather disciplined and ideologically grounded. His uncomplicated ideology “to make America strong again” attracts many supporters who previously doubted for whom to vote. Simply put, people took out the policy and complex metaphors and are ready to give the votes for the most implacable fighter against the system. Another plus for Trump is his financial independence and the ability to provide his own election campaign.
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The main hope is the very strength of the American system, where the branch is really divided. Therefore, any President, one way or another, will have to make allowances for the other institutions including Congress, Supreme Court, the media, civil society, the opposition, etc. Finally, even those who believe that Trump will be able to win the White House without changing xenophobic rhetoric are convinced that he could not conduct his scandalous reforms. The president considers any major reform, but Congress introduces it. This also applies to the taxation, health care, and immigration law. Even if Donald Trump will be able to rally the Republicans and take up the reforms, he would have time exactly until November 2018. Then, there will be held mid-term elections in both houses of Congress, and if the population is dissatisfied with the actions of legislators led by Trump, they could choose Democrats, not Republicans.
Thus, those who have faith in the American checks and balances are confident that if Americans elect president Donald Trump, he will need to simply endure four years. Yet, nobody thinks about the possibility of Trump’s re-election for the second term.
However, it is quite possible that Trump will become the President of the United States. Firstly, he needs to win the party nomination and the media love. The Republican core voters usually split and divide due to the sympathy towards different candidates (Warren & Fassett, 2015). In order to win the nomination, Trump needs a compromise and does not pull as a compromise figure. He is rich enough to push himself to win the presidential race as an independent candidate but being independent, he does not have a chance. Republicans are extremely disadvantageous to Trump running as an independent candidate, because the Republican electorate will split. This means that they will work against him and discredit him in the eyes of potential voters. Another thing is that Trump is attacking business, which can be seen as a huge gamble because business does not like unstable environment. He did not hesitate to use any expressions trying to offend everybody, which may turn into much more coarse insults and venomous consequences for the attacker.
However, even though the chances to become the president are not so high as of Clinton or Sanders, his popularity rise is an alarming symptom. It constitutes a mounting exasperation with politics and politicians. The fact that the party is obsessed with the struggle against competitors and addresses important issues relegated to the background that constantly flashed the same person and the competition between the “dynastic” candidates Clinton and Bush only exacerbates irritation. Not all share these feelings: at least, not all voters are guided by their political sympathies, but the irritation does not go away. A few years ago, it has given rise to “Tea Party” which is now ascended. Love to Trump may subside, but the demand for such characters as he is will remain the same.